|
In this 10-choice test with 10 points given
for each correct answer. We might expect to get about
2 out of 20 correct, just by random guessing - that is,
a score of 20. Even if no ESP were at work, we could expect
scores such as 10, 20, or 30 as a "chance" result.
Here's what better scores likely mean:
40 points = This is suggestive that some ESP may be at
work. But the score is not quite high enough to be considered
statistically significant.
50 points = ESP is likely at work. The chances of getting
such a good score just by luck are only about 1 in 20. This
score is considered statistically significant.
60 points or more = ESP is very likely at work. The chances
of getting such a good score just by luck are less than
1 out of 100.
What
about a score of 0 - that is, all misses? The scientific
study of ESP has identified a phenomenon called "psi-missing,"
which refers to what seems to be the use of ESP to give
incorrect answers. (Most likely it's unconscious ESP,
because the person may be trying very hard to give correct
answers.) Even though it may not be improbable to get
a wrong answer on a 10-choice guess, what about doing
that 10 times in a row … or 20 times ?
Actually, a total score of 0 for a person's
20 consecutive guesses is easily within the realm of luck
- or "bad luck" we might say. It's likely to happen about
one-eighth of the time. (For those interested in the mathematics
of this, consider that the chances of getting a wrong
guess are 90%. If you multiple .9 times itself 20 times,
you get .12 - that is, about 1 out of every 8 times.)
However, if you take the test two times in a row and get
a score of 0 both times (!), then it is highly likely
that "psi-missing" or "ESP-missing" is at work.
|
|